Lessons from: Abundance

Name: Abudance: The Future Is Better Than You Think

Author(s): Diamandis, Peter H.; Kotler, Steven

Synopsis

We are no longer living in isolation, all of us are connected and doing things to improve one part of the world will have knock-on effects in other parts of the world. This book is an attempt to show that despite all that is going wrong with the world, there is reason to hope. And not hope as a viture to cultivate, but rather tangible evidence that the future is bright.

The authors lay out some of the challenges that the world is and place them in the form of an "abundance pyramid" where solving challenges at the base of the pyramid will allow people to "graduate" to the higher floors. And when all challenge are solved there shall be "abundance", defined by the authors as "providing all with a life of possibility". They then attempt to show how exponential technology  (i.e., tech whose impact, either through efficacy or cost, grows exponentially with time, such as microprocessor size and cost over the last five decades) combined with cultural shifts are slowly addressing those challenges. They make sure to point out that the road is long, but the destination is rewarding.

Core ideas

1. Our capabilities have begun to catch up with our ambitions:
1. Technology is the great enabler; it makes what was once scarce abundant. Seen from the lens of technology, resources are not scarce but merely inaccessible. The authors give the example of aluminium, a once rare element that was made commonplace by technology.
2. We have traditionally (and perhaps are wired to think this way unless we are deliberate about it) have had a "scarcity mindset". That is, we are what one would call "fatalists" when we see rising pollution level, food shortages, global temperature - We think that there is nothing that that can be done about it other than cutback our modern conveniences.
3. While it may be true that resources are scarce, but with human ingenuity, grit and the right technology the same (and other) resources can be used much more effectively thus ending the apparent scarcity.
4. We are living in an era of rapidly improving technology - and this technology is placing what was once out of reach in the palm of our hands.
2. There are 3 other forces compounding the effect of improving technology and making the world better:
1. The DIY revolution that is leading to exponential growth in places where breakthroughs can come from. Earlier, progress was the province of large organizations and governments - but now, there is a possibility of true breakthroughs in the use of technology with every new garage startup.
2. Capital being spent by wealthy philanthropist (often the "technophilanthropist") to improve lives. Money greases the wheels of the economy and that spurs innovation.
3. The "rising billion" (the poorest of the poor in the world) that have historically been denied progress are now entering the mainstream, that too, not as consumers but creators through the proliferation of the global transportation network, internet, wireless communications and microfinance.
3. Abundance is a pyramid with 3 parts, starting from the bottom:
1. Taking care of simple physiological needs: Food, water and shelter
2. Access to energy, education and information/communication - Energy allows you the means to do work, education allows you to know how to work and specialize, and information/communication technologies allow you to share specific knowledge and expertise with others.
3. Health and freedom - Rapidly evolving technologies like "Lab on a chip" (LOC) and personalized medicine have the potential to increase quality of life and healthspan for millions. While social media powered with ubiquitous internet and smartphones allows freedom of expression to all of us, thus allowing clearer signals on popular sentiment (of course, this belies the immense power and responsibility that these social media giants have).
4. Cynicism
1. It's easy to get pessimistic because its evolutionarily favourable. Our amygdala is designed to look for bad news, it is forever on the lookout for bad news. All of our lives are pessimistic, there is always a greater than zero chance of your investments being wiped out, terrorists storming your neighbourhood or you getting a sudden heart attack, and unfortunately the amygdala is not designed to switch off till the danger vanishes completely, but probabilistic events can never be completely eliminated.
2. Plus, the illusion of validity which makes people think of their own beliefs as reality. Confirmation bias makes us look for data that confirms our negative thoughts. It is no wonder that most people are quick to paint (and truly believe) a pessimistic picture of the future.
3. Even worse, pessimism about the future limits desire to act. This is the real cost of pessimism.
4. Also, the world we live in today (global and exponential) is poorly decoded by our local and linear brains. So, the pace at which change is happening, instead of being a cause of optimism, is ignored by our brains. Great.
5. Truth is, we are living in the most amazing and hopeful times the human race has ever seen:
1. The authors give multiple examples how almost everyone in the world has easier access to resources, energy and opportunity than our ancestors have ever had.
2. You too, if you think about it, will be able to think about how our lives are actually much better than our grandparents and their grandparents. All of us face challenges in life, but at least all of us have reason to hope. Hope not simply as a virtue to inculcate, but as an objective reality because there is documented evidence of many seemingly intractable problems that the human race has overcome in our own lifetimes. Think about the COVID-19 pandemic, a disease that started and finished within, I'll say, three years - From "We don't know much about this virus, but it can kill you" to "Here, take this vaccine and you'll be immune". If this is not cause of hope of the human race's increasing ability to harness technology for a better tomorrow, then I do not know what is.
6. The author's talk about the eight fields chosen as Singularity University's core curriculum that have the potential to positively impact billions of lives:
1. Networks and sensors: About how the internet of things (IoT) can lead to massive efficiencies in how we extract, manufacture and distribute resources.
2. Artificial intelligence: Has the power to reshape our lives from self-driving cars, to diagnosing disease, to helping children learn faster.
3. Robotics: Like AI, has the potential to increase our productivity in the physical world.
4. Digital manufacturing and infinite computing: 3D printing can shave of millions of dollars off manufacturing costs (since it is additive than subtractive) and transportation costs as only the schematics of the 3D file need to be sent to the recipient who can "print" the widget themselves. Add on to this that computing power is getting virtually free with every passing decade, allowing the application of computers to our most pressing problems.
5. Medicine: Technologies like "Lab on a chip" (LOC) have the potential to transform the lives of billions of people living in abject poverty.
6. Nanomaterials and nanotechnology: Self-replicating nano bots that can work at the atomic level with whatever raw material we give them, pull it apart atom by atom and reconstruct it into whatever else we like.
7. Transportation systems, and information and communication technologies (ICT) form the base of the abundance pyramid. These enable rapid proliferation of resources and knowldge respectively allowing the people at the base of the pyramid to rise up.
8. Water:
1. 99.5% of water on earth is not fit for human consumption, hence there is a real need for exponential technologies to create a world of water abundance.
2. The authors talk about a few of the most promsing developments when it comes to water security:
1. The Slingshot machine that can have its inlet hose immersed into anything wet and output "one hundred percent pure pharmaceutical-grade injectable water."
2. The LifeSaver bottle that can "removes everything there is to remove: bacteria, viruses, cysts, parasites, fungi, and other waterborne pathogens."
3. The National Alliance for Water Innovations that seeks to remove water wastage at all steps by creating a "Smart Grid for Water"
4. High-tech toilets that "powder and burn the feces and flash evaporate the urine, rendering everything sterile along the way. Rather than wasting anything, these toilets give back: packets of urea (for fertilizer), table salt, volumes of freshwater, and enough power that you can charge your cell phone while taking a crap, should the need arise."
3. The authors are confident that, while the road is long, what awaits us at the end is a world of water abundance.
9. Food:
1. 1 of 7 people in the world do not have enough to eat, with the young being the most vulnerable. Even if they do not die of hunger, the severe lack of resources during childhood leads to stunted adults in every sense of the term.
2. The practices used today to grow food (vegetarian or not) are unsustainable and something needs to change otherwise the planet will not be able to support us.
3. A good first step has been the emergence of Genetically Engineered (GE) seeds. Despite the intial concerns regarding their safety, environmental impact or how "natural" they were, it is clear that GE seeds have contributed to the increase in food production/security over the last two decades.
4. However, there are more promising technologies on the horizon:
1. Vertical farming: Using hydroponics (and even aeroponics) and applying it to farms laid out vertically inside tall buildings in cities allows for the production of foodstuffs right where (or very close to) where the consumption will happen. Since 70% of a foodstuff's price comes from transportation, storage and handling, this will mean a significant reduction in cost as well as the benefits that come from eating fresh. Combine this with networks and sensors monitoring everything from temperature to pH balance and according to the authors "vertical farms offer the clearest path toward ending hunger and malnutrition.".
2. Aquaculture: At the basic level allows reduction in commercial ocean fishing practices and hence protect ocean ecosystems from damage, which then have knock-on effects to the rest of the world. But in more advanced applications can even become a source of generating fortified protein that has very little environmental impact and becomes an integrated part of the global food chain.
3. In-vitro meat: If all of us start eating cultured meat, it may lead to one of the biggest reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. It is no secret that rearing livestock for meat is a leading contributor to global warming (apart from other risks like diseases).
4. Agroecology: Can help us design food systems that mimic the natural world. Instead of striving for zero-environmental impacts, agroecologists want systems that produce more food on less land while simultaneously enhancing ecosystems and promoting biodiversity.
10. DIY revolution: Everything from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles to social reforms to genetic engineering to space flight has been touched by regular people with a passion to change the world. Earlier the thought was that audacious goals were the domain of governments or at least very large businesses. Now this is no longer the case, today "anyone can take on a grand challenge".
11. Technophilanthrophy: The world has never before seen the number of young multi-millionaires and billionaires there are today. And these young and energetic humans are focused on using their wealth and influence to address the most challenging issues of our time.
12. Rising billion: Modern technology has already led to millions of people rise out of abject poverty and live a life of relative abundance. This took some time as companies had to recast their business models to suit the unique needs of the bottom billion, but now with examples like Grameenphone bringing affordable Communications along with consequent knock-on effects to Bangladesh, or the Tata Group bringing affordable mobility to the Indian masses with the Nano, or M-PESA opening the doors of mobile commerce in Kenya - it is clear that this erstwhile neglected market represents a goldmine of opportunity for triple bottom line business. The authors also point out the pivotal role played by the internet in being a global melting pot for ideas (similar to the parallel rise of coffee houses and enlightenment during the 18th century). And it is ideas, tested against each other, that drive the world forward.
13. Energy: Solar power is getting cheaper by the year, and according to the authors there will come a time when it will be cheaper than conventional fossil fuel based form of energy. In fact, as of writing, this has actually happened. But there is more, next generation biofuels derived from algae can increase production by orders of magnitude, thus reducing the land area needed for such projects to a fraction of what is needed today. Artificial photosynthesis can provide us with solar fuels that may have the potential to replace fossil fuels. Liquid Metal Batteries can provide a "install and forget" way of storing energy for households and be able to reliably work for decades. And generation IV nuclear reactor technology like the travelling wave reactor can provide safe, clean and reliable nuclear energy that can power entire cities for several decades without human intervention. Finally, a smart electricity grid made possible with the proliferation of IoT devices will allow us to massively cut back on our energy wastage as well as plan ahead for the future to make sure each appliance connected to the grid is provided the right amount of power at the right time.
14. Education: Once upon a time the domain of the elite, education is now democratic because of the internet and reaching the bottom most strata of society through initiatives like One Laptop Per Child. And even what counts as "education" is changing, the common system of education that most adults today grew up in is based on an archaic ideal of the industrial revolution where humans were literally treated as resources, standardization was the need of the hour, and the system was designed like an assembly line. However, the education system that babies being born today will be nothing like this.
1. First, it will not teach the rote memorization of facts, but rather will teach kids how to ask the right questions.
2. Second, it will likely be more gamified so that learning is actually fun (which it is IMO, school takes all the fun out of it).
3. Third, it will be more flexible with students being able to mix and match subjects basis whatever is most suitable for them.
4. Fourth, it will be personalized, at a basic level with students being able to access it on demand and skip over to or rewatch those parts that they are finding interesting/challenging (instead of relying on a teacher's physical presence), and at an advanced level through AI as it understands at a deep level the student's learning style, acumen, interests and more to serve content in the optimal pedagogical style (already this has come through in Chat GPT).
5. Finally, students will not simply cease to be students when they graduate. Lifelong learning will become commonplace as a desire and curiosity to learn new things is correctly introduced during formative years and remains with one throughout life.
15. Healthcare: Our bodies are so complex with many moving parts, and when that is combined with the exponential rate of growth in our medical knowledge base that it may be impossible for even the smartest and most gifted doctors to keep up.
1. But the good news is that powerful ubiquitous computing combined with AI can help doctors all over the world make the right calls and design the right treatment protocol for patients.
2. Also helping the situation, especially for the less fortunate among us, is zero cost diagnostics that is dropping the cost of testing and diagnosing disease by orders of magnitude, example the mChip.
3. Robotics can not only augment surgeons in the operating room but also act as caregivers for the elderly.
4. Stem cell therapy is gaining ground as well and within a decade we might reach the ability to regenerate or even "grow" organs using a patient's own stem cells.
5. Also on the horizon is P4 medicine (stands for "Predictive, Personalized, Preventive and Participatory" medicine) that will allow us to nip disease and injury in the bud instead of taking a reactive approach to it. Again, powerful and ubiquitous computing will have a role to play in making medicine predictive and personalized. And as costs go down over time the authors predict "Soon every newborn will have his or her genome sequenced. Genetic profiles will be part of standard patient care. Cancer victims will have their tumors DNA analyzed, with the results linked to a massive data correlation effort.".
6. Sensors will also get more commonplace, accurate, smarter and cheaper so that we are able to track our bodies in real time and take steps to avoid future problems.
7. The authors also seem to indicate that we are now used to, and in fact, expect science and technology to "fix" our bodies whenever something goes wrong. This, to me, marks a contrast with even just a century ago the general populace would have been more forbearing with physical ailments. This change in mindset is driving the pouring of billions of dollars into healthcare by an older, wealthier and more motivated populace (initially in the US, but I think already in many other economies too) that wants to spend a little more quality time with their loved ones. And this "greasing" of the wheels of healthcare R&D will benefit all of us, not just the ones that need it most.
16. Freedom: Many define freedom as "having control on one's time". I think it is apt.
1. The tools of abundance enabled by exponential technology allow precisely this. If you do not have to spend time thinking about where you next meal/medicine/paycheck is going to come from, then you release that time to think about the things that are more meaningful to you.
2. "... of all the categories in question, self-empowerment has been and will continue to be the one most significantly affected by the rising tide of abundance."
3. The ubiquity of the internet helps tremendously in enabling the common man to ask for their rights. Examples come to mind, like the Arab Spring and the Tulip Revolution. And while the internet is a tool that can be used for good as well as bad, the authors are hopeful that the forces of good will triumph over evil.
17. Four major motivations drive innovation: Curiosity, fear, greed and (desire for) significance. All of these can be harnessed through incentive competitions (contests where a reward is offered to the person or team that solves a particular problem or achieves a specific goal).
18. Incentive competitions: The authors are very postive about the power of incentive competitions to solve our most pressing problems.
1. Focus and mindset: They help focus attention on a specific area and foster a mindset that a challenge is solvable.
2. Right constraints: They lay out constraints that are often very tight (some might call them downright absurd), making people think outside the box. And the on offer are just right, not too small and neither too large (lest traditionalists and large incumbents start particiapating, which may lead to less innovative solutions).
3. Small groups: Rightly designed incentive competitions help attract small groups that are more agile than organizations and are able to take risk that organizations simply will not take. "With no bureaucracy, little to lose, and a passion to prove themselves, small teams consistently outperform larger organizations when it comes to innovation. Incentive prizes are perfectly designed to harness this energy."
19. Comfortable with risk, curious in failure: Big rewards often come with big risks. So, the road to abundance must first start with a mindset that is receptive to (but not afraid of) risk and sees failures as nothing but opportunities to learn and improve the next time around. Unless this mindset is reached, abundance will not be reached.
1. The line of supercredibility: Is a set of benchmarks that we carry in our minds that help us decide whether to believe in something or not. Like if your Uber driver tells you that the economy is going to enter a bull phase, you may not believe them. But if the chairman of the Federal Reserve says the same thing, then you will likely buy more stocks. If something is "above" the line of credibility then we believe it. This is important because only when you believe something is possible, do the rest of the dominos start falling into place (mindset, followed by action).
2. Right mindset: "If we’re serious about creating an age of abundance, then we’re going to have to learn to think differently, think young, roll the dice, and perhaps most importantly, get compfortable with failure."

Notable quotes

• Progress continues through the good times and the bad.
• Our days of isolation are behind us. In today’s world, what happens “Over there” impacts “Over here.”
• Raise global standards of living. Research shows that the wealthier, more educated, and healthier a nation, the less violence and civil unrest among its populace, and the less likely that unrest will spread across its borders.
• ... direct correlation between quality of life and population growth rates — as quality increases birth rates decrease.
• In today’s hyper - linked world, solving problems anywhere, solves problems everywhere.
• The world's biggest problems are also the world's biggest business opportunities.
• Technology is a resource - liberating mechanism. It can make the once scarce the now abundant.
• When seen through the lens of technology, few resources are truly scarce; they’re mainly inaccessible. Yet the threat of scarcity still dominates our worldview.
• Right now a Masai warrior with a cell phone has better mobile phone capabilities than the president of the United States did twenty - five years ago. And if he’s on a smart phone with access to Google, then he has better access to information than the president did just fifteen years ago.
• Internet, microfinance, and wireless communication technology that’s transforming the poorest of the poor into an emerging market force.
• Abundance is not about providing everyone on this planet with a life of luxury — rather it’s about providing all with a life of possibility.
• Teaching kids how to nourish their creativity and curiosity, while still providing a sound foundation in critical thinking, literacy and math, is the best way to prepare them for a future of increasingly rapid technological change.
• Love is a better master than duty.
• ... this cynicism, and why it’s this reaction — the inability of people to see the positive trends through the sea of bad news — that may be the biggest stumbling block on the road toward abundance.
• Human beings are designed to be local optimists and global pessimists and this is an even bigger problem for abundance.
• Bad news sells because the amygdala is always looking for something to fear.
• ... once the amygdala begins hunting bad news , it’s mostly going to find bad news.
• For abundance, all this carries a triple penalty. First , it’s hard to be optimistic, because the brain’s filtering architecture is pessimistic by design. Second, good news is drowned out, because it’s in the media’s best interest to overemphasize the bad. Third, scientists have recently discovered an even bigger cost: it’s not just that these survival instincts make us believe that “the hole we’re in is too deep to climb out of ,” but they also limit our desire to climb out of that hole.
• But the mind does not get the power of Compounding.
• The issue, then, is that we are interpreting a global world with a system built for local landscapes. And because we’ve never seen it before, exponential change makes even less sense.
• “The true measure of something’s worth is the hours it takes to acquire it.”
• Information is our latest, our brightest, commodity.
• One of this book’s key messages is that anyone can take on a grand challenge.
• Ultimately, though, the biggest opportunity is the sun. It’s decentralized, fully democratic, and available to all.
• So if the Internet is any guide, once we’re able to build the next generation energy network — what I call the Enernet — I believe we’ll be awash in energy.
• ... we’re teaching the wrong stuff, but just as alarming is the fact that the stuff we’re teaching isn’t sticking.
• What we do know is that the industrialized model of education, with its emphasis on the rote memorization of facts, is no longer necessary. Facts are what Google does best. But creativity, collaboration, critical thinking, and problem solving — that’s a different story.
• We can’t get deeper learning until we change the tests.
• ... almost every component of medicine is now an information technology and therefore on an exponential trajectory. And this, my friends, makes it a whole new ball game.
• Fearlessness is like a muscle: the more we use it, the stronger it becomes. The more we are willing to risk failure and act on our dreams and our desires, the more fearless we become and the easier it is the next time.
• This is the adjacent possible. It’s the long list of first - order possibilities that open up whenever a new discovery is made.
• No one set out to zero the costs of two dozen products, inventors set out to make better cell phones, and the path of the adjacent possible did the rest.
• One of the more important points made throughout this book is that our perspective shapes our reality.

In closing

Personally, I am very trusting in the ability of science and technology to bring about a world of true abundance. I truly believe that it is our only hope to allow people to free themselves from the challenges our evolutionary wiring (scarcity mindset etc.) and bring about a world we can be proud of. In my three decades of existence, I have seen how lives have been transformed and continue to be transformed by the fruits of STEM.

This book gives me hope, real hope, that we are heading towards a future that will be better than our past. I am excited about the possibilities and can't wait to see where exponential technology combined wuith human ingenuity takes us.